Apple’s upcoming iPhone 16 series is expected to have a strong initial performance, but demand may start to decline towards the end of the year in comparison to last year's iPhone 15 series.
According to renowned Apple analyst Ming Chi Kuo, iPhone 16 series shipment is expected to grow 10% YoY in CY Q3 2024 as compared to iPhone 15 series in the same quarter of 2023. However, in CY Q4 2024, iPhone 16 series shipment is expected to decline 5–7% YoY compared to iPhone 15 series shipment in the same quarter last year.
Apple is expected to unveil four new smartphones in the iPhone 16 series later today at its headquarters in Cupertino Park, California. Global sales is expected to start within 10-12 days of the launch event.
Overall, Kuo expects Apple to ship 89 million units of iPhone 16 series in 2024 as compared to 91 million units of iPhone 15 series during the same period last year.
In terms of overall shipments in 2024, the iPhone 16 Pro Max and iPhone 16 Pro are expected to lead with 38% and 30% market share respectively. The lower-priced iPhone 16 and 16 Plus are expected to have market share of 26% and 6%, respectively, said Kuo in a blog post.
Foxconn, which makes iPhones for Apple, has reportedly started production of iPhone 16 series including the Pro models in China as well as India. This is the first time that made in India iPhones will be released outside India immediately after the beginning of global sales.
Apple has been diversifying its manufacturing and supply chain operations to reduce dependence on China, but the majority of iPhones are still manufactured in Chinese factories. Foxconn is expected to account for 55 to 60% of iPhone 16 series shipment globally, according to Kuo.
After seeing a 4.3% YoY revenue decline to $90.8 billion in FY Q2 2024, which included a 10% drop in iPhone sales, Apple made a swift recovery in FY Q3 2024 with a 5% YoY increase in revenue. The promise of an AI-enhanced iPhone is believed to have played a key role in enhancing the appeal of Apple products.
At the WWDC 2024 event in June, the iPhone maker announced its new generative AI system, named Apple Intelligence, for iPhones, iPads and MacBooks.
Its underlying generative AI model will run on-device when handling lighter tasks. For more complex requests that require more processing power, Apple Intelligence will switch to the larger cloud-based AI models running on servers powered by Apple chips.
Apple Intelligence will assist users by providing them writing tools in email, notes, and messages. It can also sort important emails and notifications, and can transcribe and summarize audio in calls.
Apple’s personal voice assistant Siri is also set to get a major facelift with Apple Intelligence. Siri can now understand conversational context better and can have a more natural conversation with users. It can also access and understand content displayed on the screen, allowing users to add a friend’s address from a text message to their contact card with a voice prompt.
Although Apple Intelligence has spurred a lot of interest in new iPhones, it won’t be immediately available to users. According to Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, Apple Intelligence will start rolling out in October with the iOS 18.1 software update. Also, the initial version will be without many features including the integrated ChatGPT.
Image credit: Apple Newsroom